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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Minnesota Vikings 30

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 19-P.Hart (22-H.Smith) [99-D.Hunter].

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model