4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 30 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(:29) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to SEA 1, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP