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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 35

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:32) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model