Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 55

Washington Commanders 14 – Buffalo Bills 24

(:35) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.62 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -1.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model