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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

WAS
37.2%
BUF
62.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: -0.248 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.026 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 21 mph
  • WAS on 3 more days rest than BUF

Predicted Final Score

WAS 18
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

WAS

Matt Ioannidis DT Questionable Knee

BUF

Dane Jackson CB Questionable Knee
Levi Wallace CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 21
–
BUF 43

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:01 TD BUF (11:01) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 1-E.Sanders for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline. WAS 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 13:06 TD BUF (13:06) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short right to 20-Z.Moss for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 10:48 TD BUF (10:48) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – BUF 20
  • Q2 10:06 TD WAS (10:06) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – BUF 21
  • Q2 07:50 TD WAS (7:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – BUF 21
  • Q2 01:40 FG BUF (1:40) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. WAS 14 – BUF 24
  • Q2 00:02 FG BUF (:02) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. WAS 14 – BUF 27
  • Q3 04:47 TD BUF (4:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 1-E.Sanders for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Toohill]. WAS 14 – BUF 33
  • Q3 02:15 FG BUF (2:15) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. WAS 14 – BUF 36
  • Q4 10:36 TD BUF (10:36) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen scrambles right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – BUF 42
  • Q4 05:27 TD WAS (5:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 82-L.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – BUF 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:24) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to BUF 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 24 for 6 yards (95-C.Toohill).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 57%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to WAS 35 for no gain (52-J.Davis).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 17%

    (5:34) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to WAS 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:42) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to BUF 37, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 30 for 33 yards (95-C.Toohill, 96-J.Smith-Williams). Return credited to WAS 48 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-44-T.Matakevich, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 48.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (1:40) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:35) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 29%

    (13:08) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to BUF 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (2:15) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:01) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to BUF 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 29 for 5 yards (22-D.Everett; 30-T.Apke).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (14:52) 3-M.Haack punts 60 yards to WAS 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:41) 4-T.Heinicke up the middle to WAS 22 for -1 yards (58-M.Milano).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (5:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 82-L.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.