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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 72

Washington Commanders 14 – Buffalo Bills 36

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to BUF 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 29 for 5 yards (22-D.Everett; 30-T.Apke).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model