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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 77

Washington Commanders 14 – Buffalo Bills 36

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 4-T.Heinicke up the middle to WAS 22 for -1 yards (58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.95 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model