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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 14 – Buffalo Bills 43

What Actually Happened

(5:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 82-L.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model