Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 79

Denver Broncos 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(8:49) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 40 for 10 yards (30-C.Sterns).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.86 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model