BAL @ DEN — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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HC Vic Fangio

Sunday 2021-10-03 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BAL

26.6%

DEN

73.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Teddy Bridgewater (DEN): +0.434 EPA/dropback in prior starts
BAL offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
DEN defense: -0.215 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
DEN offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
BAL defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 18

–

DEN 27

Projected margin: DEN by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BAL

Ronnie Stanley T Out Ankle

Derek Wolfe DE Out Back

Anthony Averett CB Questionable Ankle

DeShon Elliott S Questionable Quadricep

Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Knee

Lamar Jackson QB Questionable Back

Tavon Young CB Questionable Knee

Chuck Clark S Questionable Hip

Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Shoulder

Geno Stone S Questionable Thigh

Alejandro Villanueva T Questionable Knee

DEN

Graham Glasgow G Out Knee

Baron Browning LB Questionable Back

Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Ribs

Shelby Harris DE Questionable Wrist

Dre'Mont Jones DE Questionable Calf

Andre Mintze LB Questionable Hamstring

Dalton Risner G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23

–

DEN 7

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 14:22 TD DEN (14:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – DEN 6
Q2 10:28 TD BAL (10:28) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – DEN 7
Q2 07:18 TD BAL (7:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 5-M.Brown for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Purcell]. BAL 13 – DEN 7
Q2 00:02 FG BAL (:02) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 17 – DEN 7
Q4 13:43 FG BAL (13:43) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – DEN 7
Q4 01:54 FG BAL (1:54) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 23 – DEN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DEN 4th & 19 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(12:11) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 20 for 12 yards (37-P.Locke; 46-J.Bobenmoyer).
Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(9:16) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 47

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%

(7:47) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 52

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 21%

(5:06) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(2:32) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to BAL 4, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(1:36) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to DEN 38, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 43 for 5 yards (16-T.Wallace).
Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(8:49) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 40 for 10 yards (30-C.Sterns).
Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 25%

(4:07) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(1:13) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 17 for 8 yards (49-C.Board; 54-T.Bowser).
Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(:48) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-D.Duvernay to DEN 26 for 42 yards (43-M.Kiser).
Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 88%

(:02) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(13:28) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 9-K.Hinton.
Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(8:45) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q3 BAL 4th & 19 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(7:06) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to DEN 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 35 for 9 yards (49-C.Board).
Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%

(4:25) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 79%

(13:43) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(12:44) 6-S.Martin punts 68 yards to BAL 2, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-12-M.Ford.
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 89

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP

p(convert) 74%

(10:34) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to DEN 47, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 9-K.Hinton.
Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

(1:54) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.