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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 50

Denver Broncos 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.31 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model