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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 17 for 8 yards (49-C.Board; 54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model