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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 56

Denver Broncos 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.04 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model