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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 61

Denver Broncos 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to BAL 4, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model