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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 5

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 32-D.Swift (44-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 5, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model