Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to DET: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.716 vs Jared Goff (DET) -0.033 EPA/dropback
- CHI offense: -0.304 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- DET defense: +0.232 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- DET offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
DET
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:53 TD CHI (8:53) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 6
- Q2 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) 32-D.Montgomery left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 13
- Q3 10:38 TD CHI (10:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Williams left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 20
- Q3 03:23 TD DET (3:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 21
- Q3 00:14 FG CHI (:14) 2-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET 7 – CHI 24
- Q4 11:21 TD DET (11:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 11-K.Raymond for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – CHI 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 24%
(12:18) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to DET 44 for 9 yards (24-A.Oruwariye, 25-W.Harris).
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Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(9:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 32-D.Swift (44-A.Ogletree).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(8:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 38, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 45 for 7 yards (81-J.Holtz).
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Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:45) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to CHI 4, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.
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Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 61%
(13:33) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to CHI 17, Center-47-S.Daly. 15-N.Webster to CHI 23 for 6 yards (39-J.Jacobs).
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Q3 DET 4th & 15 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:27) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to CHI 9, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(6:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 41, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 41 for no gain (21-X.Crawford). PENALTY on CHI-21-X.Crawford, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DET 41.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%
(:14) 2-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 48%
(5:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at CHI 34 for 9 yards (4-E.Jackson). Penalty on CHI-91-E.Goldman, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 8 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%
(4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [90-A.Blackson].