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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 65

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to CHI 9, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model