Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 85

Chicago Bears 21 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 41, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 41 for no gain (21-X.Crawford). PENALTY on CHI-21-X.Crawford, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DET 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.81 EP
51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model