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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 8

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [90-A.Blackson].

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.20 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model