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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model