Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- JAX offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- CIN offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.252 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CIN defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- JAX defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
JAX
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:32 TD JAX (1:32) 25-J.Robinson right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – CIN 0
- Q2 04:50 TD JAX (4:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – CIN 0
- Q3 13:20 TD CIN (13:20) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – CIN 6
- Q3 05:12 TD CIN (5:12) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – CIN 13
- Q4 14:30 TD JAX (14:30) 25-J.Robinson left guard to CIN 1 for 3 yards (24-V.Bell). Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-J.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – CIN 14
- Q4 09:08 TD CIN (9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 87-C.Uzomah for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-26-S.Griffin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. JAX 21 – CIN 20
- Q4 00:04 FG CIN (:04) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. JAX 21 – CIN 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 32%
(11:01) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 20 for 12 yards (42-A.Wingard). PENALTY on CIN-80-M.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 18.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%
(5:25) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:36) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(14:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CIN 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:02) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 62%
(2:30) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%
(:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right tackle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 65-L.Ogunjobi). CIN-65-L.Ogunjobi was injured during the play.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(11:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 14 for -1 yards (53-D.Allen; 20-D.Thomas).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 64%
(3:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 10-L.Shenault pushed ob at CIN 33 for 5 yards (21-M.Hilton).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 34%
(5:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.