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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.11 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP