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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right tackle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 65-L.Ogunjobi). CIN-65-L.Ogunjobi was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +4.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.62 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.50 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model