4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 14 for -1 yards (53-D.Allen; 20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model