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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 20 for 12 yards (42-A.Wingard). PENALTY on CIN-80-M.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.57 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model