4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 10-L.Shenault pushed ob at CIN 33 for 5 yards (21-M.Hilton).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.67 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model