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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CIN 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.32 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model