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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 37 for 3 yards (43-M.Davis; 33-D.James).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model