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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Monday 2021-10-04 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

LV
44.2%
LAC
55.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.229 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.258 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LV 24
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

LV

Alec Ingold RB Questionable Shoulder
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Ankle

LAC

Justin Jones DT Out Calf
Chris Harris CB Questionable Shoulder
Kenneth Murray LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 14
–
LAC 28

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:06 TD LAC (8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 04:21 TD LAC (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. LV 0 – LAC 13
  • Q2 00:34 TD LAC (:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – LAC 20
  • Q3 09:07 TD LV (9:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – LAC 21
  • Q3 01:51 TD LV (1:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – LAC 21
  • Q4 05:27 TD LAC (5:27) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 14 – LAC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:33) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to LAC 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-K.Hill to LAC 24 for 11 yards (42-C.Littleton; 5-D.Deablo).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:37) 1-T.Long punts 48 yards to LV 23, Center-54-M.Overton, downed by LAC-20-T.Campbell.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:12) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 56%

    (2:03) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long pass incomplete short left to 20-T.Campbell (13-H.Renfrow).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 84-K.Hill.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (13:38) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to LV 24, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 41 for 17 yards (31-N.Niemann). PENALTY on LAC-31-N.Niemann, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at LV 41.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 66%

    (11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-J.Jacobs to LAC 37 for no gain (44-K.White).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:49) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to LV 15, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LV 15.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:01) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-K.Hill ran ob at LAC 20 for 9 yards (42-C.Littleton).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:52) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to LAC 31, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 84-K.Hill.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook to LV 49 for 6 yards (24-J.Abram).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 15 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:50) 1-T.Long punts 35 yards to LV 19, Center-54-M.Overton, downed by LAC-54-M.Overton.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (13:36) 1-T.Long punts 39 yards to LV 9, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 14 for 5 yards (37-K.Hall).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 73%

    (10:42) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 34%

    (9:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook to LV 37 for 13 yards (52-D.Perryman).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 37 for 3 yards (43-M.Davis; 33-D.James).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 68%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 16-T.Vizcaino punts 32 yards to LV 4, Center-54-M.Overton. 44-N.Kwiatkoski to LV 10 for 6 yards (71-M.Feiler).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 87 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 11-H.Ruggs (43-M.Davis).