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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 87

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 11-H.Ruggs (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.44 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 87, worth -1.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 45, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model