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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 1-T.Long punts 48 yards to LV 23, Center-54-M.Overton, downed by LAC-20-T.Campbell.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model