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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long pass incomplete short left to 20-T.Campbell (13-H.Renfrow).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.55 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model