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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 21 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.98 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -1.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model