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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYG
43.1%
NO
56.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: -0.186 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYG

Ben Bredeson G Out Hand
Sterling Shepard WR Out Hamstring
Darius Slayton WR Out Hamstring
Keion Crossen CB Questionable Elbow
Tae Crowder LB Questionable Hamstring
Nate Ebner S Questionable Quadricep
Kaden Smith TE Questionable Knee

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Elbow
Erik McCoy C Out Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 27
–
NO 21

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:59 TD NYG (8:59) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 12-J.Ross to NO 1 for 51 yards (43-M.Williams, 29-P.Adebo). FUMBLES (43-M.Williams), and recovers at NO -8. TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 00:29 TD NO (:29) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – NO 6
  • Q3 13:34 TD NO (13:34) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – NO 13
  • Q3 08:40 FG NYG (8:40) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – NO 14
  • Q4 12:14 TD NO (12:14) T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – NO 20
  • Q4 07:01 TD NYG (7:01) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 26-S.Barkley for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 25, YAC 29 NYG 16 – NO 21
  • Q4 00:36 FG NYG (:36) 5-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 21 – NO 21
  • Q5 05:00 TD NYG (5:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYG 27 – NO 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to NO 38, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Harris to NO 47 for 9 yards (31-K.Crossen).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 59%

    (11:35) 4-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to NYG 6, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to NO 29, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 82%

    (3:51) 41-A.Kamara left end to NYG 27 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams; 59-L.Carter).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 94%

    (13:20) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 59%

    (9:05) 6-A.Rosas 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (8:40) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NO 37, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-52-C.Coughlin.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 41%

    (9:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 30 yards to NO 17, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (7:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to NYG 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-C.Board ran ob at NYG 46 for 26 yards (4-B.Gillikin).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 80%

    (:36) 5-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.