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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 30

New York Giants 18 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(:36) 5-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.32 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model