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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 80

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to NO 29, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model