4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 41-A.Kamara left end to NYG 27 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams; 59-L.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model