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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 16

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.76 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP