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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model