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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

PIT
37.4%
GB
62.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.097 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.051 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

PIT

Rashaad Coward T Out Ankle
Carlos Davis DT Out Knee
Chukwuma Okorafor T Out Concussion
Chase Claypool WR Questionable Hamstring

GB

Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR Out Hamstring
Elgton Jenkins G Doubtful Ankle
Kevin King CB Doubtful Concussion
Krys Barnes LB Questionable Concussion
Jack Heflin DT Questionable Ankle
Vernon Scott S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 17
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:11 TD PIT (10:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-52-R.Gary, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 6 – GB 0
  • Q2 13:29 TD GB (13:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – GB 6
  • Q2 11:03 TD GB (11:03) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – GB 13
  • Q2 05:46 FG PIT (5:46) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 10 – GB 14
  • Q2 00:08 FG GB (:08) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. PIT 10 – GB 17
  • Q3 09:35 FG GB (9:35) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. PIT 10 – GB 20
  • Q3 04:52 TD GB (4:52) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – GB 26
  • Q4 04:10 TD PIT (4:10) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 56%

    (4:20) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to PIT 4, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-86-M.Taylor.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to GB 46, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 8-Am.Rodgers to PIT 45 for 9 yards (46-C.Kuntz). PENALTY on GB-19-E.St. Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 46.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 70%

    (5:46) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (:08) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (9:35) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:08) 6-P.Harvin punts 20 yards to PIT 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 75%

    (2:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 22-N.Harris to GB 33 for -1 yards (42-O.Burks, 39-C.Sullivan). GB-23-J.Alexander was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (14:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 37 yards to GB 5, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-48-D.Tuszka.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:43) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to PIT 37, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 38%

    (10:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to GB 45 for 2 yards (59-D.Campbell) [97-K.Clark]. PIT-69-K.Dotson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%

    (7:01) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:00) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to PIT 15, Center-43-H.Bradley. 14-R.McCloud ran ob at PIT 29 for 14 yards (44-T.Summers).