Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Green Bay Packers 20

(7:08) 6-P.Harvin punts 20 yards to PIT 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.85 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model