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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(10:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to GB 45 for 2 yards (59-D.Campbell) [97-K.Clark]. PIT-69-K.Dotson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model