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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 91

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to GB 46, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 8-Am.Rodgers to PIT 45 for 9 yards (46-C.Kuntz). PENALTY on GB-19-E.St. Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.07 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model