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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 92

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to SF 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 42 for 12 yards (44-N.Bellore). SEA-57-C.Barton was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.88 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model