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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

SEA
50.6%
SF
49.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.231 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.278 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.225 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 27
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SEA

Rashaad Penny RB Out Calf
Brandon Shell T Out Ankle
D'Wayne Eskridge WR Doubtful Concussion
Alton Robinson DE Questionable Knee
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Hip
Benson Mayowa LB Questionable Neck

SF

K'Waun Williams CB Out Calf
Josh Norman CB Doubtful Chest
Javon Kinlaw DT Questionable Knee
George Kittle TE Questionable Calf
Elijah Mitchell RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 28
–
SF 21

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:40 TD SF (9:40) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 82-R.Dwelley for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Woods]. SEA 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD SEA (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 7. 7-YAC SEA 6 – SF 7
  • Q3 05:31 TD SEA (5:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play. SEA 13 – SF 7
  • Q3 04:32 TD SEA (4:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 18-F.Swain for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – SF 7
  • Q3 02:22 TD SF (2:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 48. 52-YAC SEA 21 – SF 13
  • Q4 12:14 TD SEA (12:14) 41-A.Collins up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – SF 13
  • Q4 01:26 TD SF (1:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SEA 12. 12-YAC SEA 28 – SF 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 29 for 10 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to SF 8, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 18 for 10 yards (25-T.Homer; 44-N.Bellore).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 51%

    (3:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to SF 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-M.Sanu.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 89%

    (13:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to SF 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 34 for 10 yards (26-R.Neal). PENALTY on SF-29-T.Hufanga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 24.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-F.Swain. PENALTY on SEA-21-T.Flowers, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 14.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to SF 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 42 for 12 yards (44-N.Bellore). SEA-57-C.Barton was injured during the play.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:59) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (:47) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-F.Swain MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 6.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 27%

    (12:23) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-36-M.Harris.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:07) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to SF 26, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-R.Neal.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:04) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-F.Swain to SEA 34 for 11 yards (49-T.Cannon).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%

    (9:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 76%

    (8:16) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at SF 40 for 11 yards (56-J.Brooks). Caught at SF 36. 4-YAC

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 30%

    (6:18) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end to SF 49 for 1 yard (51-K.Hyder; 56-J.Brooks).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 51%

    (4:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 83%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle to 6-M.Sanu to SEA 21 for 7 yards (6-Q.Diggs). Caught at SEA 21. 0-YAC

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance scrambles up the middle to SEA 8 for 13 yards (54-B.Wagner). SEA-8-C.Dunlap was injured during the play.