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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-36-M.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.93 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP