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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 28

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end to SF 49 for 1 yard (51-K.Hyder; 56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.11 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model