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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 28 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.98 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP