4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 28

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle to 6-M.Sanu to SEA 21 for 7 yards (6-Q.Diggs). Caught at SEA 21. 0-YAC

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.74 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP