Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(3:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to SF 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-M.Sanu.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.14 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.24 EP

KICK -0.40 EP

51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
49% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model